Policy Note 13: Asylum migration does not change the unemployment rate among residents

Austria and Europe are currently experiencing a strong influx of asylum seekers. In relation to the population, it is particularly strong in Germany, Austria and Sweden. This also has an impact on growth and employment: In Austria, refugee migration will increase employment by 42,000 more people by 2030 than would be the case without refugee migration. However, this is not enough to fully employ the additional, often low-skilled workers. The unemployment rate will therefore be 0.4 percentage points higher than without refugee migration. "The increase in unemployment will primarily affect the group of refugees themselves. There will probably be no significant increase in the unemployment rate among residents. However, it is to be expected that low-skilled residents will be displaced to a certain extent," explains Johannes Berger, Head of Labor Market and Social Security Research at EcoAustria.

The influx of refugees also increases private consumption, investment and gross domestic product. However, as the population is growing faster, refugee migration slightly reduces per capita GDP. However, these findings should not be applied to migration in general. "A whole series of studies show the positive economic consequences of migration, especially by higher-skilled workers," says Berger.

"Asylum should primarily be viewed from a humanitarian rather than an economic perspective. Nevertheless, the economic and fiscal effects must be considered from the outset," emphasizes Berger. The more effective qualification measures are and the faster integration into the labor market is achieved, the more positive the economic effects will be. For this reason, activation and qualification measures for persons entitled to asylum and asylum seekers with a high probability of remaining should start early. Due to the high proportion of young asylum seekers - around 40 percent are under the age of 17 - there is an opportunity to significantly improve the qualification structure through education and training, according to the conclusion of an EcoAustria policy note published today.